Trying times, are they versatile right to the core?

Ticket is settled, AirAsia one-way flight to Melbourne International Airport on the 13th February 2009. Now left the accommodation (still waiting for offer letter) and acceptance (yet to accept). Then *Boom* time flies and I'll be there in Monash University, Caulfield. Can't wait. Much ado I've anticipated the surrounding of the University. No doubt people whom I mix would be by the highest possible rate to be Asians. The Australians would less likely mix with the Asians. Admit it, the issue of racism is not a Malaysian issue but a world pandemic. That's one of the main cause Mr. Obama mounted an astounding victory in the US 2008 Election. Voted for his skin and not for his policies. Many might disagree with me but the facts are clear. There are still no any stimulation plan that is sufficient to counter the growing destruction of the financial crisis. All the while Mr. Obama had just stated "he will" ; "try to" and etc. that doesn't gives us a very clear picture of his major plans to curb the growing concern of a financial meltdown looming anytime during early 2009. What's more when the current situation is proving the date of "judgement day" to arrive as predicted. As I've told Kar Kien while we were in the LRT during our way back from Petaling Street on the 19th November 2008, that what ever companies that we see today, the weak once will be perished during the year 2009, and what ever left in the beginning of 2010 are the really though companies. At first I expected automakers such as General Motors (GM) and Ford might withstand the financial crisis invasion, but looking recently with reports after reports of them begging the US congress to allocate funds from the 700 billion stimulus package for their survival had changed my perception immediately. Moreover GM was never in a very healthy look since the early 2000's. Standard & Poor's, as I've read had degraded GM to BBB+ during the early 2000's which means they're bonds are of near junk bond level. And by the mid of 2005 or so, GM had been degraded to total junk bonds. Recollecting the entire episode since the sub prime mortgage loan crisis or low-doc crisis that had spurred a spiral or domino effect to the entire financial markets landscape, I with no doubt that one day we might hear the collapse of a once mighty automaker player, GM. Unemployment rate in the US had been slowly meeting all time high. Couple of months back, Australian, Rudd government had just announced the lack of workforce and declared that Australia is willing to receive unskilled workers to feed their growing economy appetite, and just a day ago, 20th November 2008, Australia was reported to be on the brink of a might-come recession. So far the third largest economy, European Union, had declared an overall fallout to recession. Previously Singapore was the first to fall into recession with double quarters of contracting economy size. The general method to indicate a recession is when a country reported two (2) consecutive quarters of economy contracting. Downsize in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The whole world is submitting to the treat of the financial crisis. Malaysia as they say might not be affected as bad as the Westerners however, we are still stabilise for the moment only and not long as we are equally dependent to the US economy. China, one of the growing giants of Asia was also reported to be cutting out jobs. If China, a country that had reported double digits of growth since 2000, after liberalising its economy under the premiership of Deng Xiao Ping, and now in the year 2008 reporting a cutting of employment due to its single digit growth would utterly means the whole world is coming to a World War Three in the form of economical crisis. Crude oil had fallen to $USD 55 from a skyrocketed all time high $USD 147 in the month of July. The Malaysia government had initiated their 5th time of petrol ceiling price reduction to RM2 after an all time increase of 40% to RM2.70 in the month of July to combat the overstating crude oil price ($USD 147). Our minister overlooking the petrol prices are had recently declared that our federal government coffers is earning a profit form the overall price reduction. This means we are paying a higher premium for petrol. Consider this example: When crude oil price was $USD 70 per barrel, our petrol pump price was at RM1.92. Since now the crude oil price had fallen to $USD 55 per barrel, wouldn't it be logical for us to pay a petrol pump price that is lower then RM1.92 instead of RM2. The government is taking a very prudence stand to slowly reduce the petrol price not significantly but by intervals to show that the incumbent government is working extremely hard to reduce the rakyat's burden. However I believe the crude oil price per barrel will continue to fall to an all time low because people are more conservative in their spending. The American market for petrol had seen a significant immediate drop. However since demand was dropping, report stated that Oil & Gas players are still continuing investing much of their cash to locate new areas with oil utilising the equipment provided by the oil & gas exploration industry players. With the demand from America drops, GM will need to re-engineer it's products to be more petrol efficient as people/consumer are now more prudence in their spending. Nevertheless, I believe the real testing time for all these companies is during the year 2009. Their resilience to financial meltdown will be tested to its core during 2009. Honda had slashed their estimated profit for 2009. I wish them all the best.

Oil dilemma

26th June 2008

Ended class at 10am, watched "Red Cliff" with Jo Wee, CX, Carryn, Pei Chern, Yong Hau, Andrew, Kar Kien, Daniel, Beng and Tom. It WAS "THE" SUPREME MOVIE!! "RED CLIFF" a.k.a "CHI BI" is like the bomb of all bombs. Nevermind the actor and actresses, but their strategies, although wasn't really emphasize in the film but was extremely outstanding. The Eight Tiagrams Formation (a.k.a. turtle formation) was really great. The used of the reflective shield and the distortion of the enemies view by creating a sand storm condition before direct engaging them was brilliant. Though in the novel was never written any of this, but to put it in the story, I'll say quite interesting. But I'll comment that the director and producer could actually emphasize more on their strategies cause the presence of Zhuge Liang makes it a trademark to deploy serious and cunning strategies in the battlefield. Overall marks out of ten (10), I'll say a 8.9. Night fall, went out with Adrian to Taipan, "Kayu".

27th June 2008

Night fall went to Li Shin's farewell/birthday barbecue party at her house. Met old friends; Da Qiang, Chai Yin, Mei Ling, Ning Ning, Bik Yun, Ken Hon, Ting Yu, Emily, Ze Ling, and Lester. Barbecued the chicken wings, prawns and sausages. It was so hot handling those chicken wings. Luckily it was raining (drizzling), at least to cool down the surrounding temperature. Chit-chated old times in Seafield.

And now for some serious issue concerning our nation's prestige. Foreign diplomats concentrated their attacks on Malaysia's legal system. Seeking justified explaination from our Foreign Minister regarding Anwar's sodomy case that is said to be tainted with political motives. The usual stuff, Rice (Secretary of State) coming in to meddle around with other countries sovereignty. Typical of Americans, not blaming her but she's just doing her job.

Anyway, I believe most of you all had heard about the good news. Oil price drop till USD$124 from USD$147 recently. Demand is falling, speculators taking a break and supply just keeps on climbing. Every car owners in America is vying to switch to fuel efficient cars and Japan's oil demand is decreasing by day, thanks to the overly speculated oil price. That was last straw for many major and minor oil consumers. The damaged had been done, the demand is going through a reduction. But the question remains, how long will it be? General Motors recent clinging to their smaller profit due to a drastic change of demand for luxurious and petrol guzzling vehicles among the Americans is trying to create more hybrid cars to satisfy the changing needs of their former and potential customers. Today's The Star Biz Week reported several high profile who commented on the coming liken-to-be future prospects in the O&G (Oil & gas) industries. Their general view as I summarised it is oil prices will not go lower then US$100. Thats a good start concerning the demand is indeed really shrinking. At least we will not be exactly directed to head into a stagflation- fears of all fears. Mayby our inflation rate at 7.7% high might not last long if and only if oil prices remain declining. The more the better. Think of it, when everyone cuts down 40% of of their utility on oil in the world, that would deal a severe major blow to those oil producing companies since everyone now is talking about reduction in the use of petrol and switching into trifty lifestyle. A little effort by everyone could be a huge threat. I'm not making a mountain out of a mole hill, neither is it a trivial issue, but more of a setback for our economy as well. We are considered as an oil exporting countries, although our petrol price is less subsidised, and if the demand decreases drastically we are going to fall along with other Middle Eastern countries, such as United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and etc oild producing countries. If the oil price remain high and continues to climb, we are not in a good position; neither would it be any better if the oil price decreasesas a result of reduction in demand. Any outcome, we will still be at the loosing end. Such a dilemma.

They felt the pinch

HA! So now the people are getting fed-up with the political turmoil infested in our society. Lies, deceive and prejudice. That's just the very few of what is and had happened since 8th March 2008. Well I had to admit, it was pretty entertaining hearing hearsay about how politicians react to allegations flung at them. But somewhere in the middle, things need to stop like what others had been saying for the past two (2) days and I don't have to repeat them. Its too much at stake to stall the economy, furthermore we are at the brink of facing a recession at a global scale anytime amid the United States subprime mortgage crisis still looming around. Danger is just by a stone throw away.

Since the liberalisation of the price ceiling for steel and other building materials, beginning of the year by the Economic Planning Unit (EPU), the price has fluctuated to historical high figures. Another gigantic atomic bomb released on the construction industries (First was the petrol & diesel price). Everyone wants a free market, to be able to play at a pace without the intervention of government policies. But that had cause a stall in the construction industries. Contractors and sub-contractors are now facing a tough time trying to adapt to the change of price climate. Some had even abandoned their projects because the cost is just unbearable. Their economies of scale had been threaten. Moreover with the recent mid-term review of the 9th Malaysian Plan by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Mohammad Nor Yakcop, Second Finance Minister, more government projects are bound to be put on hold or scrap, besides those listed by the Finance Ministry. If so, with the shocking increase in petrol & diesel price (by 40% and 63% respectively), scraping of government mega projects and increase in electricity tarrif (up by 30%), our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2008 will definitely experience a fall out from our current position (38th) with an amount of 186,482 million of $USD (186,482,000,000), not to mention our purchasing power is now already cranked up. Politics are based on perception but economics are based on numbers that do not lie. Therefore, we are in for a deep shit!

The stupidity of Malaysian government

Are we viable enough to achieve Vision 2020 like what Mahathir Mohammad had promised during his tenure as Malaysia's 4th Prime Minister. To me, its becoming more of a vague promise. Oh my my, the act of heroism by Mahathir when he save us from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis by refusing delibrately to receive immediate financial aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank seems to be forgotten by time. His influence is just not that powerfull anymore, no more the ohmm in him. With the recent 12th General Election just passed when our "beloved" Malaysia's 5th Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi rejected the speculated date of the dissolvement of Parliament only to give us a shock the next day by announcing the dissolvement of Parliament. Contradicting his own words and I have no bloordy idea does he even realised that. Secondly after the election, was the sudden announcement of "harga petrol naik" again when all along they fooled us by publicly declaring that petrol price will increase only in the month of August by earliest. Another so-called suprise action being taken by Badawi. Not bad, he got potential to be a liar. (Psst..., I haven't even touch on the issue of how he got Jeanne Danker to be Puan Abdullah, but I won't come to that because that is his private life) Then came to this issue about having to change the uniform of female school students, who the PAS people convey their disgust on how old man are being turn-on by these younger girls. To be honest with you, I felt like laughing loudly the moment I read that even now while typing this up. How stupid can a stupid person be? I wonder have they ever listen to Frank Sinatra's "My Way". A little freedom in spirit of democracy here perhaps would be vital to ensure that we are still on track to achieve Vision 2020 to be a developed country. The key difference why we are facing a mountain of task to accomplish Vision 2020 when other countries without Vision 2020 can achieve developed country status is because of people like them who talk bullshit and walk on cow shit. Oh ya i forgot, there is also the Lingam case "judge fixing scandal" with the Royal Commision of Inquiry being established to evaluate the authencity of the video clip taken by Loh Gwo Burne (MP of Kelana Jaya) and produce to the government and media by Anwar Ibrahim (de facto PKR leader). The whole scenario was just to prove that the person in the video clip is indeed Lingam himself and not another person who "looks like him, sounded like him but not him". If you take a stroll at the highest floor in Pyramid Subang Jaya new wing, you'll notice there is a Radioactive shop that sells shirts with those words printed on it. Nothing unique, but I think Radioactive is quite a popular brand (can be argue or counter-argue) and they are taking this new pick-up line from Lingam. I wonder do they pay him royalty? Next was the newly announcement to bar media into the Parliament. Is that called a move to promote transparent governance?
Some of these things might sound trivial (media barred) while some are seriously important (petrol price increase), but what I'm trying to shine here is that how can a government make such stupid moves in the first place. In my humble opinion, aren't every action done had been past through a series of check and scrutinisation before commiting to it. If a government policy is to be question massively by so many non-political parties, then what are they doing in the Parliament? Something must not be right for that to happen right? If things goes on like this how is it possible to see Malaysia achieve a developed country status via Vision 2020.

The heat is up once more (Round 2 FIGHT!)

By now I'm sure YOU've read the suprising breaking news announce momentarily ago. SAPP two (2) Member of Parliament planning to announce a vote of no-confidence to Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on early Monday Parliament seating. This will (definitely) be a huge setback not only for the Barisan National regime but worst of all our economy. Foreign investors will immedietly pull out massive amount of capital investment upon the distability of our political landscape and the next think you know, KLCI drop again, FDIs drop all time low and worst still we'll be in the headlines in global news (CNN, BBC, CNBC, Financial Times, Al Jazeera News, ABC Australian News). It seems this would be a once and for all a predicted downfall for UMNO/BN. To an extend that they might just fall back to take the opposition seats for the current term till the 13th GE. But I'll said that all I want from UMNO is two (2) things in order for me to classify them as a relevant political party; eliminate all the members holding the top seats-positions (President, Vice-President, Second Vice-President,Secretary-General,etc)because they are all, irregardless of past contributions toward the country are now all considered to be corrupted-squandering on our country's rich and bountiful resources indiscriminately as you all know. Secondly would be to immediately remove the Malay agenda that had been playing on since the very existence of it. Merge MCA and MIC with UMNO into one party and NOT! a coallition party. Collectively proclaim the word bangsa Malaysia. We never need to segregate our own people. For goodness sake, would you discriminate your own children in the future? These two actions are insurmountable only because of certain quarters harbouring the benefits of reaping the richness of our nation through a divide and rule conquering style. To those bigot who question the likeliness of establishing a BANGSA MALAYSIA; what is there to fear when it has not been tested out yet. I see Malays eating in an Indian restaurants, Chinese in Malays restaurants, Indians in Kadazan restaurants, Iban in Punjabi restaurants, so where is the problem of having the bangsa Malaysia agenda.
At times of a global economy price crisis, more people are fearing of the sustainability of their family income, so if it takes a united political party to withstand the economical tsunami, I'll bet with my head on the table that everyone will give a "yes" to establish a purely Bangsa Malaysia political party. And I double dare my head on the table that we could utterly withstand this economical tsunami. The move by SAPP members is just the beginning of the change taking place. From what I've heard, members of UMNO are painstakingly suffering from the reformation taking place on our judiciary system and other economical mechanism that was tilled to enchance the flow of money in our country's economy. They have warned Badawi and Zaid Ibrahim (De facto law minister) that the move had caused their "money" to decline. This make Badawi to fall into a dilemma whether to gain the support of the people but loose the support of UMNO members or loose the people's support and risk being taken over by Pakatan rakyat and remain his position as the President of UMNO in future. Its disgusting to hear that despite the outcome of the 12th General Election results that there are still a number of UMNO pathetic so-called hero of the people members make such demand in light of a downturn in the world economy. That means all along our economy benefits were never distributed equitably and the people are the ones supporting the setback of the global economy despite Malaysia being an oil producing country. 650,000 barrels of crude oil are being produced daily by Petronas and 250,000 are sold at global market price above USD$130 and yet the profit harvested are still insufficient to cushion the impact. At times like this we need a calibre leader to eliminate the so-called hypocrites of the people saviour icon, through the use of politics as the medium of exchange. The world is talking about economy stability and we are still squandering here talking about races? How pathetic are our politiciants ; so called hero of the people. Anyhow with the change of perception among the SAPP people, its time for round two (2) for "Barisan Nasional Vs Pakatan Rakyat". The spilling effect from the 12th GE.

Leaving and coming

You know; when you hear from time to time, even during our schooling days that Malaysia's homebreed graduates are leaving the country to work other places that they seem to be able to recognise their abilities, compared to their own countrymen. Well I would agree perhaps half of it. Call me naive if thats in your mind, but take a deeper look at it; doesn't it seems more like globalisation is taking its coarse. Not to be surprise, but even our neighbouring countries like Singapore and Thailand is experiencing the same situation. If other countries are having (suffering) the same problem (lack of professionals) as we, its more likely to become a global problem. Well at the moment I can only think of is two (2) countries. If local professionals are leaving the country and foreign expatriates moving in, the problem of employment does not arrise. What I think for how the problem of local breed graduates leaving the country arrises is more of a nasionalism problem. By saying nationalism, what I meant was the local working class is not too happy to work with foreigners or in other words is they dislike having foreigners as their superiors. This form of egoism, spurs the situation into a problem, therefore in truth, there wasn't even a problem at all. More of a globalisation opportunity the way I see it, because what the locals need to see is the opportunity to learn, as learning is a lifelong process undeniably. Not being a xeno worshiper, but having expatriates would give the companies opportunities to manage the economy at the global standards. For example, the introduction of ISO (International Sistem Organisation) into our local companies system have cause them to gain tremendous recognition among the world top companies. Therefore, the very fundamental elements that construct this problem was never even existed but more of being speculated. There wasn't any shortage of professionals, more of a national pride problem. Elimination of border lines is the best to equate to globalisation. Alright if you're unhappy with these expatriates, then think of our people working in other countries, but please do not flush me with the "they are not contributing to the country wert", mind you that they still bring a sense of pride to the country through their works. What we have here is no different from what other countries are facing. Australians never like Asians to work with them, so instead of harbouring this and that by as well accept the fact that the game of globalisation is on and we're part of it like it or not.

Is oil really facing a shortage. I'm a little naive in this part because yea I'm one of those peeps that gets fooled easily by reading the news therefore to counter it I read multiple source of information to get a more accurate picture of the whole. One thing I've went through is the case of developed countries having stockpiled oils around the world to inflate the price or in other words to get other to speculate the price up. How true is it, I don't no. As the demand and supply plays its game, we get the pinch in either way just like the fight between predator and aliens. Alright alright got carried away for that moment. Lol. If the oil price really manage to break through or even touch through USD$ 200 per barrel, I guess we're in for a deep shit. To further hasten the speed, I think OPEC is doing something nasty around. What deep shit is lurking between those "crude oil makers".

Anyway exam is just one (1) more to go on Tuesday (17th June) Introductory to Accounting A. After that is 3 weeks plus break. So far so good, mostly is good, not to be over confident but its good. I hope so!

Car being a money burner than a transport!

A little late, I noe, was busy with exam, neither i am free now yet, but just curi tulang abit. RM2.70 /litre. Crazy. I just went and pump up the MyVi at home when it still have 2 bar left before getting dry, and guess the price?? RM79.73 compare to previously was RM50 plus (holding the situation that the petrol bar still remain at 2 before getting dry) The car is being more like a money burner than a transport!. Haha lucky the car is small, but certainly not fuel efficient, but still better compare to those holding big cars la. Anyway the government is speaking foolish language. Why compare petrol prices with other non-petrol-producing countries. Take a look at the pic below.

Malaysia RM2.70/ litre ; Winner for the most expensive/ highly charge petrol for an oil-producing country/ and being ridiculously fool by the government. Tax here tax there, then telling us not enough money to subsidies. What the crap! Badawi (Finance Minister) and Yackop (Second Finance Minister) why are you both being such a bafoon in the cabinet, taking us for a ride? Syed Sharir how could you torture us like that? By far you are the most uncorrupted cabinet minister there is.

Badawi, table lah the account of Petronas collosal profits in the Parliament. I bet its more then what was recorded in Wikipedia 14.4 billion USD as per 2007. I believe is was an underdeclared profit. Hassan Marican doesn't care whether the money show up is important for the country's imej, cause all he cares is the siphoning of it into the cronies pockets.

Bloordy Bastards!

Touching on another issue that is somehow related...

Anyhow, if Badawi really wants to compare Malaysia with other countries , then lets put forth Singapore, the dragon and elephant of the world (China and India), mini giant of south east asia (Vietnam). Our Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) had been downsizing since the early 2000s. On the other hand Singapore, China, Vietnam and India is experienceing a boom of FDIs. I mean come'on! Singapore have no such thing as earthern materials for extraction and still champion up in term of FDIs and even their GDP is rising tremenodously. Failure of an unequitable distributing administration of scarce of resources to the people.

A brief history...

During the early 90s we were the most visited foreign land for investment by the Westerners, cause during that time other SEA countries are still experiencing political instability, unlike our country, but now China has gone through a new level, Vietnam does't experience the shock of the post-Vietnam War anymore, India is just like her counter-part China continuing to encourage international trade. So now they can offer what we can't offer and that is cheap labour. Seriously China's labour market is going through some change whereby the term 'cheap labour' is going to be eliminated since the Chinese are getting more aware of their surroundings and resist from being exploited, so the next target would be Vietnam and if Burma really manage to enjoy the fruit of democracy, then that would be the second mini giant of South East Asia.

Continuing...

Another thing, is about, the somehow strengthening of the Ringgit IN TERMS OF USD. Great news cause the greenbacks are now depreciating amid the speculation of a US recession. Great!!! comparing ourselves to a looser wannabee. We may see ourselves to be rising by comparing the greenbacks but the currency of other nations is rising too, wooping up our asses! Australia is experienceing a Boom especially the Western Australia (Perth for example) in their mininng industries. Therefore their FDis are in no question to be rising, GDP skyrocketing and other numerical digits will be increasing in fast pace, they are even experiencing a shortage in the labour market. Therefore they need people like you and me to contribute. Lets just hope it remains like that until a couple of years after i've graduated so that I would have time to not only find job easily but also change job till I find a suitable one. But hell! gotta dream on la and if that really happens, I'll be in wonderland. Woohoo.

People are fighting for survival eventhough this is not a World War 3 but its becoming more of a world war minus the guns and tanks and replace it by oil and food. What a sad world we're living in.